Can Agriculture Meet Future Nutrition Challenges?

Can Agriculture Meet Future Nutrition Challenges? Special Debate Section. European Journal of Development Research published online November 22, 2012. (Paper available here.)

According to FAO’s projections, global food demand will increase by about 70 per cent during the next 40 years. That corresponds to about 1.4 per cent accumulated annual growth. Such growth is achievable and, although international food prices are likely to continue to be volatile, I do not believe the world will experience an increasing trend in real food prices in the foreseeable future. As further discussed below, the world is not running out of productive capacity. In fact, with appropriate policies, future food demand can be met at current real prices and without doing damage to natural resources. Unfortunately, that does not mean that nutrition needs will be met.

Producing enough food to meet demand at reasonable prices is necessary but not sufficient to achieve good nutrition. Neither is it sufficient to achieve food security. Food security at the household and individual level depends on access to food. Food insecurity frequently exists in situations where plenty of food is available but not accessible to some households and individuals. However, even if household food security is achieved, malnutrition may flourish because the intra-household distribution does not correspond to individual needs or because non-food factors that are important for nutrition such as unclean water, poor sanitation and hygiene and inappropriate care are the most binding constraints to good nutrition.

The kind of food to which households and individuals have access – and not just the amount – is important for nutrition. Diet diversity is critically important for meeting nutrient needs. The degree of food security is often measured as the extent to which dietary energy requirements (measured in calories) are met. FAO’s estimates of the number of undernourished people are a case in point. Many more suffer from nutrient deficiencies and/or overweight and obesity. Therefore, the answer to the question posed in the title of this article depends on whether everybody will have access to the energy and nutrients needed, that is, a diversified diet, whether people overeat and whether the utilization of the food is hampered by non-food factors.

But what is the proper role for agriculture? One could argue (and many do) that agriculture can only be held accountable for producing enough food to meet demand and that agriculture cannot be blamed for poverty, overeating, poor diets, unclean drinking water and poor child care. If this argument is accepted, then the relevant title of the article would be ‘Can agriculture meet future food demand?’ My answer to that is a straightforward yes. However, I will argue below that human nutrition is affected by agriculture through several pathways of which producing the amount of food demanded is but one, although an important one.

The rest of the article is presented in three sections. My assessment of the future food situation and why I think that real food prices are not on an upward long-term trend is discussed first; then follows a brief account of the nature of the nutrition challenges, and the article concludes with a set of policy recommendations to make agriculture more nutrition sensitive.

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